Is Arsenal Worse This Season?
Image: Arsenal FC Media
Arsenal’s performance has become a major talking point. Not necessarily because they've worsened, but due to a noticeable change in their playstyle. This shift is evident when comparing underlying metrics such as non-penalty expected goals for and against.
The adaptation in tactics, particularly around build-up play and the roles of specific players like Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, and Kai Havertz, offers an insight into Arsenal’s current season.
Tactical Analysis: Understanding the Shift
1. Change in Expected Goals
The rolling 10-game average of non-penalty expected goals reveals a significant drop in Arsenal's attacking output compared to previous seasons. Simultaneously, the expected goals against have improved, showcasing Arsenal becoming tougher to break down. These statistics suggest a variation in team performance, pivoting more towards defense than offense.
2. Build-up Play and Midfield Dynamics
Arsenal's change in build-up strategy has played a crucial role. Last season, the build-up revolved around players like Thomas Partey and Granit Xhaka, offering consistency in midfield. The addition of Declan Rice altered this dynamic. The shift from a single to a double pivot in midfield, often involving players like Zinchenko or Partey adjusting their roles, has impacted Arsenal's play. This change aims to manipulate the opposition's defensive structure, allowing for wider play development but consequently reducing central progression.
3. Influence of Tactical Adjustments
The tactical adjustments, such as the positioning and roles of players like Rice and Havertz and frequent rotation due to injuries, have led to inconsistencies. Although these strategies are meant to outmaneuver opposing teams’ formations, Arsenal struggles in central ball progression due to Rice's preference in receiving the ball and the overall structural changes.
Image: Reuters
Data Insights: The Effect on Team Performance
Analyzing Arsenal's final third entries, there's a noticeable decline in central attacks, with a greater reliance on wing play, particularly on the right channel with Bukayo Saka. This tactical shift explains why Arsenal's attacking metrics seem diminished this season.
Tempo and Transition Play
Another critical aspect is the tempo in Arsenal's build-up. Screenshots from a game against Chelsea demonstrate how Arsenal's build-up, despite creating numerical superiority in certain areas, leads to an imbalance further up the pitch. Consequently, players like Martinelli and Saka are left with challenging odds against the opposition's defense, leading to slower attacking transitions.
Impact on Player Performances
The change in tactics has notably affected individual performances. For instance, Martin Erore's stats indicate a drop in expected assists, fewer shots from inside the box, and decreased passes into the penalty area. These statistics point towards a reduced impact in Arsenal's attacking phase due to the altered system.
Arsenal's tactical evolution underlines a strategic shift from an attacking, central-focused play to a more defensively robust and wider attacking approach. This transformation, while making them hard to break down, has also led to a reduction in attacking output. Key player roles, tempo, and build-up strategies have been pivotal in this change. Understanding these shifts is crucial in assessing Arsenal’s strategy and future prospects in the current season.
